TECHNICAL TOOL
CBAM cost simulator: what will carbon cost you on import?
CBAM has been in its definitive phase since 1 January 2026. This simulator estimates your annual cost, your surcharge per tonne, and gives you the timeline of the deadlines that apply to your situation.
Result
- Estimated net annual cost
- 75 360 €
- Certificates required
- 1 000,0
+€10/t on the certificate represents €10 000 per year on your tonnage.
What this simulator calculates
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism makes the importer pay for the emissions embedded in the steel they bring into the Union. The principle is simple; the calculation less so. It depends on cumulative annual tonnage, your supplier's emissions factor, the certificate price, any carbon price already paid at origin, and the share of free allocation still applying.
This simulator applies the official formula to your figures. It starts by testing the de minimis threshold: below 50 tonnes of CBAM goods cumulated over the year you are exempt — but that threshold is assessed on the annual cumulative total across all imports, not per shipment, and crossing it triggers the obligations on the whole year's volume.
The certificate price is a slider, not a constant
The simulator opens on the latest officially published price, with its quarter and publication date. A slider lets you move it, from 40 to 150 €/t in steps of 1 €, and see the effect on your annual cost immediately.
This is not an interface convenience, it is the right way to frame the problem. The obligation arises in 2026, but certificates can only be bought from February 2027, and the price will then be recalculated weekly. A buyer making provision today necessarily reasons in a range, not on a single point.
Below the result, the tool states the sensitivity plainly: "+10 €/t on the certificate represents X € per year on your tonnage." That is the line that goes into a budget.
What to know about the deadlines
Certificates represent one tonne of CO₂ each. Purchasing for the 2026 year begins in February 2027, and the first annual declaration is due by 30 September 2027 at the latest. At the end of each quarter you must hold certificates covering at least 50% of emissions imported since the start of the calendar year. Only operators holding authorised CBAM declarant status may import covered goods; in France, the application goes through the DGEC.
Who declares what
Limits of this estimate
Sources
Latest official price used by this simulator: T1 2026, €75.36 per certificate, published 07/04/2026 — see the CBAM barometer →.
Frequently asked questions
- Is the 50-tonne threshold assessed per shipment?
- No, on the annual cumulative total across all imports of CBAM goods. It is the most expensive confusion in the scheme: a run of small shipments crosses the threshold without anyone noticing, and the obligations then apply retroactively to the whole year.
- Can a carbon price already paid at origin be deducted?
- Yes, against certified evidence. The simulator provides the field. The burden of proof lies with the importer.
- Can SPS handle our CBAM compliance?
- No, and no supplier can: the declaration falls to the importer. We supply what feeds it. Be wary of any offer of "turnkey CBAM compliance".
- Where does the certificate price shown come from?
- From the Commission's official quarterly publication, carried on our CBAM barometer with its quarter and date. Do not confuse it with the EU ETS allowance price quoted on trading platforms: the CBAM certificate is the quarterly average of auction prices, and the gap between the two routinely exceeds 10%.
- Why can I change the price?
- Because certificates for 2026 can only be bought from February 2027, and by then the price will be recalculated weekly. Making provision on a single point would make no sense: the slider gives you the range, and the sensitivity line tells you what each 10 € band costs.